Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | USU -230 SDSU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USU -5.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.9 (+2.1) | 137.9 (+12.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.1 (+1.9) | 138.9 (+11.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.7 (+2.3) | 140.7 (+9.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.9 (+2.1) | 139.4 (+10.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SDSU 86 – 70 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#39) | 11.5 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#23) | 2.25 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#27) | 2.87 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#20) | 0.600 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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