Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USU -310 SDSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | USU -7.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.3 (-0.3) | 147.4 (-10.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -7.4 (-2.4) | 145.0 (-8.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -5.4 (-0.4) | 146.5 (-9.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.7 (-0.7) | 145.0 (-8.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SDSU 86 – 70 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#30) | 11.6 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#40) | 2.12 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#48) | 3.08 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#28) | 0.599 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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