Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USU +163 SDSU -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +16 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -2.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.7 (-14.3) | 142.0 (+14.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.1 (-13.9) | 140.8 (+15.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -1.5 (-14.5) | 140.7 (+15.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -1.8 (-14.2) | 141.0 (+15.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#46) | 13.6 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#6) | 2.41 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#20) | 2.99 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#5) | 0.623 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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