Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USU -148 SDSU +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USU -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.6 (+7.4) | 146.4 (-11.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.2 (+7.8) | 146.8 (-11.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.6 (+8.4) | 146.9 (-11.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.7 (+8.3) | 146.9 (-11.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SDSU 86 – 70 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#33) | 11.4 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#36) | 1.83 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#43) | 2.44 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#20) | 0.577 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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