Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -185 USU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +1 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -2.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.4 (-3.4) | 138.7 (-5.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -2.7 (-3.7) | 138.8 (-5.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -2.4 (-3.4) | 140.3 (-7.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.0 (-1.0) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SDSU 86 – 70 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#45) | 13.6 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#32) | 3.29 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#41) | 4.87 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#19) | 0.642 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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