Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BU -425 HC +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | BU -7.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -6.9 (+8.1) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -5.9 (+9.1) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -6.9 (+8.1) | 144.1 (-3.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -6.7 (+8.3) | 144.3 (-3.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
| Jan 30, 2024 | HC 65 – 63 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#260) | -10.7 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#303) | -1.95 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#298) | -2.50 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#302) | 0.413 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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