Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | HC +138 BU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | BU -3.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -3.4 (+5.4) | 131.1 (-3.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -4.7 (+6.7) | 130.7 (-2.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -3.8 (+5.8) | 132.4 (-4.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -3.5 (+5.5) | 132.3 (-4.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-14 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#348) | -7.2 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#353) | -1.54 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.80 (#356) | -1.69 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#358) | 0.415 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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