I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Patriot League · Case Gym · January 28, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread BU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 130.5 Under
Money BU -180 / HC +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total BU win
Actual BU +10 128 Won
Massey BU -3.3 (+6.7)
Massey Totals 130.7 (-2.7)
Bradley-Terry 54%
Weighted B-T 59%
Baseline Plus ML BU -1.6 (+8.4) 133.4 (-5.4) 62%
Model 4 ML BU -2.9 (+7.1) 131.3 (-3.3) 73%
Model 3 ML BU -1.3 (+8.7) 132.3 (-4.3) 58%
Baseline ML BU -1.7 (+8.3) 133.2 (-5.2) 60%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 26, 2026 BU 7863 HC
Feb 3, 2026 BU 7264 HC
Feb 8, 2025 HC 7252 BU
Mar 2, 2024 BU 9484 HC
Jan 30, 2024 HC 6563 BU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BU HC
Overall 16-16 13-19
Conference 10-8 5-13
Home 12-4 7-6
Away 3-12 4-13
Neutral 1-0 2-0
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 65.6 68.6
Avg Pts Against 68.3 73.7
Massey -8.4 (#303) -8.3 (#300)
Bradley-Terry -1.08 (#267) -0.63 (#229)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.55 (#282) -1.20 (#249)
RPI 0.445 (#268) 0.483 (#203)
Shooting & Four Factors BU HC
FG% 42.8% 44.8%
3PT% 32.8% 39.1%
REB / G 34.8 31.1
OREB / G 10.5 7.3
AST / TO 0.83 1.08
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.1% 53.2%
TOV% 21.7% 17.3%
ORB% 31.8% 22.8%
FT Rate 20.0% 16.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 54.3%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 14.0%
DRB% 75.8% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 17.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.