Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | BU -180 HC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | BU -3.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -1.3 (+8.7) | 132.3 (-4.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -2.9 (+7.1) | 131.3 (-3.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -1.6 (+8.4) | 133.4 (-5.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -1.7 (+8.3) | 133.2 (-5.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
| Jan 30, 2024 | HC 65 – 63 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#303) | -8.3 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#267) | -0.63 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#282) | -1.20 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#268) | 0.483 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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