Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | BU -500 HC +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +10 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | BU -11.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+43.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -9.0 (+1.0) | 131.3 (+46.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -8.9 (+1.1) | 133.3 (+44.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -9.0 (+1.0) | 132.8 (+45.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -8.8 (+1.2) | 131.8 (+46.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Jan 30, 2024 | HC 65 – 63 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 5-8 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#285) | -14.6 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#304) | -2.52 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#303) | -3.30 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#283) | 0.392 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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