Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | HC +120 BU -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -0.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -0.7 (-8.7) | 140.2 (-4.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -0.4 (-8.4) | 139.5 (-3.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -1.0 (-9.0) | 140.4 (-4.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -0.5 (-8.5) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
| Jan 30, 2024 | HC 65 – 63 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#313) | -7.8 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#318) | -1.94 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#315) | -2.65 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#315) | 0.401 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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