Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -225 ILST +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -3.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -4.5 (-6.5) | 134.9 (+5.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -2.7 (-4.7) | 134.7 (+5.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -3.3 (-5.3) | 130.8 (+9.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -4.5 (-6.5) | 134.0 (+6.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNI 68 – 65 ILST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ILST 81 – 73 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#86) | 6.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#111) | 0.38 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#113) | 0.52 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#83) | 0.532 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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