Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -230 ILST +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -5.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.1 (-2.1) | 137.1 (-4.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -5.6 (-2.6) | 140.9 (-7.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -5.5 (-2.5) | 141.9 (-8.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -5.7 (-2.7) | 139.8 (-6.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ILST 71 – 69 UNI |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ILST 81 – 73 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#101) | 2.3 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#112) | 0.63 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#110) | 0.64 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#92) | 0.532 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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