Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +100 UNI -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -1.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -2.3 (+10.3) | 131.5 (+22.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -1.3 (+9.3) | 132.1 (+21.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -1.2 (+9.2) | 133.3 (+20.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -0.6 (+8.6) | 134.1 (+19.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ILST 71 – 69 UNI |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNI 68 – 65 ILST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#182) | 3.4 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#172) | 0.78 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#166) | 0.93 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#177) | 0.548 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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