Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -148 DRKE +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -4.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -5.7 (-2.7) | 144.8 (+0.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -3.7 (-0.7) | 143.0 (+2.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -5.1 (-2.1) | 143.9 (+1.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -5.3 (-2.3) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | VAL 81 – 76 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Dec 6, 2024 | DRKE 66 – 60 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
| Nov 30, 2023 | DRKE 83 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#156) | -1.1 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#152) | -0.71 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#150) | -0.72 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#210) | 0.465 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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