Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +400 DRKE -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -8.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -6.8 (+0.8) | 131.0 (-5.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -8.8 (+2.8) | 131.1 (-5.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -7.8 (+1.8) | 135.9 (-9.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -6.9 (+0.9) | 136.1 (-10.1) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VAL 74 – 71 DRKE |
| Feb 10, 2026 | VAL 81 – 76 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
| Nov 30, 2023 | DRKE 83 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 60.2 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#259) | 8.6 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#271) | 3.55 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#276) | 5.61 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#287) | 0.667 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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