Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | DRKE -175 VAL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -3.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -1.9 (-6.9) | 143.1 (+13.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -3.5 (-8.5) | 142.3 (+14.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -2.0 (-7.0) | 140.6 (+16.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -1.9 (-6.9) | 142.8 (+14.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VAL 74 – 71 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Dec 6, 2024 | DRKE 66 – 60 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
| Nov 30, 2023 | DRKE 83 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#160) | 0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#206) | -0.18 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#194) | -0.14 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#215) | 0.472 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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