Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +1000 DRKE -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +18 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -6.3 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -6.4 (-11.6) | 141.1 (+6.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -8.8 (-9.2) | 138.6 (+9.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -5.2 (-12.8) | 142.5 (+5.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -4.8 (-13.2) | 142.8 (+5.2) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VAL 74 – 71 DRKE |
| Feb 10, 2026 | VAL 81 – 76 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Dec 6, 2024 | DRKE 66 – 60 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-11 | 16-0 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#324) | 3.9 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#256) | 1.60 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#265) | 2.04 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#290) | 0.579 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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