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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–10 on winners spread MAE 8.7 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Notre Dame -12.7 139.1 13% 100–56 ✓
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech +11.1 142.2 86% 68–80 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +5.1 151.9 77% 61–90 ✓
Saint Louis @ Dayton -6.6 151.5 26% 62–77 ✗
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State +0.5 138.7 51% 84–91 ✓
Northwestern @ Indiana +8.4 145.6 84% 72–68 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown +4.9 147.4 71% 76–60 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +10.4 145.8 85% 88–79 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +10.8 142.7 86% 69–79 ✓
Massachusetts @ Ball State -5.5 138.8 30% 73–74 ✗
Central Michigan @ Kent State +9.4 153.4 82% 81–83 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +12.6 157.3 86% 85–99 ✓
Louisiana @ Troy +10.9 135.9 86% 59–78 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +5.8 153.8 81% 88–97 ✓
Kentucky @ South Carolina -6.3 149.6 30% 72–63 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State -0.6 137.7 46% 76–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Morehead State +7.8 143.4 78% 63–64 ✓
Bradley @ UIC +3.5 140.4 74% 86–93 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan +22.6 142.3 91% 67–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State +8.4 154.0 80% 84–89 ✓
Arizona @ Baylor -9.7 153.9 19% 87–80 ✓
Iowa State @ Utah -12.1 141.2 17% 75–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State +7.2 143.6 78% 70–74 ✓
Arizona State @ TCU +5.7 147.8 75% 78–90 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +5.8 148.5 73% 62–72 ✓
Miami @ Florida State -0.4 150.6 53% 83–73 ✓
San José State @ Air Force -6.5 139.9 21% 86–80 ✓
Auburn @ Oklahoma -0.5 159.9 48% 79–91 ✗
Tennessee @ Missouri -3.4 142.3 35% 69–73 ✗
UCF @ BYU +10.5 160.5 83% 97–84 ✗
New Mexico @ Nevada +0.4 149.3 51% 60–67 ✓
USC @ UCLA +5.9 152.5 74% 62–81 ✓
Bucknell @ Army +2.4 139.3 66% 75–73 ✗
Wake Forest @ Boston College -5.3 143.6 30% 67–68 ✗
Morgan State @ South Carolina State -0.9 145.7 44% 90–83 ✓
The Citadel @ Furman +12.0 140.5 87% 51–72 ✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -6.0 167.2 33% 86–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.