Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -310 ASU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +12 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -6.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -5.7 (+6.3) | 151.1 (+16.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -5.6 (+6.4) | 146.1 (+21.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -5.7 (+6.3) | 147.8 (+20.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -5.8 (+6.2) | 149.1 (+18.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2025 | TCU 74 – 70 ASU |
| Dec 17, 2023 | TCU 79 – 59 ASU |
| Mar 18, 2023 | TCU 72 – 70 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#48) | 8.4 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#43) | 1.75 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#42) | 2.19 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#74) | 0.554 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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