Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -355 ASU +278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -7.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -5.1 (+14.9) | 151.5 (-13.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -5.9 (+14.1) | 150.8 (-12.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -5.4 (+14.6) | 147.5 (-9.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -3.9 (+16.1) | 149.0 (-11.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TCU 90 – 78 ASU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TCU 74 – 70 ASU |
| Mar 18, 2023 | TCU 72 – 70 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#43) | 2.6 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#39) | 1.02 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#51) | 1.40 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#184) | 0.575 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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