Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -195 TCU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -5.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -4.0 (-8.0) | 139.5 (+4.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -5.0 (-9.0) | 137.0 (+7.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -5.4 (-9.4) | 137.0 (+7.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -4.8 (-8.8) | 138.3 (+5.7) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TCU 90 – 78 ASU |
| Dec 17, 2023 | TCU 79 – 59 ASU |
| Mar 18, 2023 | TCU 72 – 70 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#61) | 8.0 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#67) | 1.46 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#65) | 1.51 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#63) | 0.555 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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