Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | TCU -190 ASU +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -4.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -4.0 (-2.0) | 144.3 (-2.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -2.6 (-0.6) | 141.1 (+0.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -3.4 (-1.4) | 141.7 (+0.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -3.3 (-1.3) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TCU 90 – 78 ASU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TCU 74 – 70 ASU |
| Dec 17, 2023 | TCU 79 – 59 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#19) | 9.1 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#25) | 1.61 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#22) | 1.90 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#109) | 0.561 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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