We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
(6) TCU Horned Frogs
72 70
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) Arizona State Sun Devils
Ball Arena (Neutral) · March 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TCU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 143.0 Under
Money TCU -190 / ASU +158
Model Predictions
Spread Total TCU win
Actual TCU +2 142 Won
Massey TCU -4.2 (-2.2)
Massey Totals 139.7 (+2.3)
Bradley-Terry 64%
Weighted B-T 73%
Efficiency Plus ML TCU -4.0 (-2.0) 144.3 (-2.3) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML TCU -2.6 (-0.6) 141.1 (+0.9) 63%
Baseline ML TCU -3.4 (-1.4) 141.7 (+0.3) 56%
Baseline Plus ML TCU -3.3 (-1.3) 142.6 (-0.6) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2026 TCU 9078 ASU
Feb 16, 2025 TCU 7470 ASU
Dec 17, 2023 TCU 7959 ASU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TCU ASU
Overall 22-13 23-13
Conference 9-9 11-9
Home 13-4 10-5
Away 4-7 7-6
Neutral 5-2 6-2
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.3 71.1
Avg Pts Against 68.4 68.0
Massey 13.3 (#19) 9.1 (#58)
Bradley-Terry 2.19 (#25) 1.61 (#57)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.89 (#22) 1.90 (#59)
RPI 0.531 (#109) 0.561 (#60)
Shooting & Four Factors TCU ASU
FG% 45.7% 41.9%
3PT% 30.6% 31.9%
REB / G 35.8 36.6
OREB / G 11.5 11.1
AST / TO 1.33 1.23
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.2% 48.2%
TOV% 17.1% 16.7%
ORB% 32.4% 29.4%
FT Rate 23.8% 21.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 46.7%
Opp TOV% 21.9% 20.4%
DRB% 69.3% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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