Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -470 FRES +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -6.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -7.1 (-3.1) | 142.2 (+1.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -9.2 (-5.2) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -7.7 (-3.7) | 141.5 (+2.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -7.2 (-3.2) | 143.6 (+0.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
| Feb 4, 2024 | CSU 73 – 61 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#89) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#86) | 0.03 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#84) | 0.26 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#91) | 0.490 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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