Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -340 FRES +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -4.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -3.8 (+0.2) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -6.4 (-2.4) | 140.0 (-10.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -5.0 (-1.0) | 138.7 (-8.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -4.7 (-0.7) | 141.7 (-11.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
| Feb 4, 2024 | CSU 73 – 61 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#87) | 1.9 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#79) | -0.05 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#76) | 0.15 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#88) | 0.483 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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