Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +225 CSU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +12 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -11.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -10.9 (-1.1) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -10.7 (-1.3) | 142.7 (-8.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -10.6 (-1.4) | 144.8 (-10.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -10.0 (-2.0) | 145.0 (-11.0) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#217) | 12.4 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#209) | 2.26 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#207) | 2.88 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#213) | 0.637 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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