Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +550 CSU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -10.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -9.7 (+4.7) | 149.4 (-16.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -10.6 (+5.6) | 148.4 (-15.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -11.9 (+6.9) | 148.6 (-15.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -11.7 (+6.7) | 150.8 (-17.8) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
| Feb 4, 2024 | CSU 73 – 61 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#269) | 7.4 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#284) | 1.26 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#287) | 1.65 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#297) | 0.546 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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