Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +164 CSU -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -2.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -3.4 (+13.4) | 134.1 (+13.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -5.1 (+15.1) | 134.7 (+13.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -3.5 (+13.5) | 133.6 (+14.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -3.1 (+13.1) | 134.7 (+13.3) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
| Feb 4, 2024 | CSU 73 – 61 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#153) | 7.0 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#210) | 1.24 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#194) | 1.93 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#212) | 0.561 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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