Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -2000 FRES +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +27 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -14.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -11.9 (+15.1) | 151.0 (+4.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -13.7 (+13.3) | 152.5 (+2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -11.8 (+15.2) | 147.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -11.8 (+15.2) | 147.5 (+7.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Feb 4, 2024 | CSU 73 – 61 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#96) | -5.4 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#107) | -1.23 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#96) | -1.65 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#125) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.