Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -1600 BUF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +14 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -13.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -12.3 (+1.7) | 155.5 (+28.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -15.9 (-1.9) | 155.6 (+28.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -13.9 (+0.1) | 158.1 (+25.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -12.6 (+1.4) | 157.3 (+26.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AKR 73 – 62 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#65) | -1.5 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#60) | -0.05 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#71) | 0.02 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#37) | 0.508 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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