Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -1000 BUF +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -12.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -16.2 (-13.2) | 154.6 (-11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -13.3 (-10.3) | 156.3 (-13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -13.8 (-10.8) | 156.8 (-13.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -15.0 (-12.0) | 157.1 (-14.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AKR 73 – 62 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#58) | -2.3 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | -0.24 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#65) | -0.22 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#30) | 0.494 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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