Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +650 AKR -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +11 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -16.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -15.0 (+4.0) | 136.5 (-1.5) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -14.4 (+3.4) | 135.6 (-0.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -15.1 (+4.1) | 137.4 (-2.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -15.8 (+4.8) | 136.5 (-1.5) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 13-5 |
| Home | 2-13 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#345) | 5.7 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#355) | 1.28 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.67 (#355) | 1.60 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#332) | 0.574 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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