Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +320 AKR -410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +19 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -6.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.9 (-31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.2 (-14.8) | 164.8 (-19.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -5.8 (-13.2) | 161.2 (-16.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -5.3 (-13.7) | 165.3 (-20.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.6 (-14.4) | 166.2 (-21.2) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AKR 73 – 62 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#166) | 10.1 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#124) | 1.62 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#127) | 1.90 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#103) | 0.578 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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