Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -4000 BUF +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +18 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -20.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -16.5 (+1.5) | 159.3 (-1.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -17.5 (+0.5) | 159.9 (-1.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -15.0 (+3.0) | 157.9 (+0.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -16.3 (+1.7) | 160.0 (-2.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AKR 73 – 62 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 16-0 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#101) | -13.2 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#80) | -1.83 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#91) | -2.49 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#29) | 0.421 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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