Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +750 AKR -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +32 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -10.3 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -11.9 (-20.1) | 159.0 (-11.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -10.2 (-21.8) | 155.6 (-7.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -9.1 (-22.9) | 156.4 (-8.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -9.8 (-22.2) | 156.8 (-8.8) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AKR 73 – 62 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 17-1 |
| Home | 6-9 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#329) | 2.7 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#305) | 0.70 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#317) | 0.65 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#287) | 0.551 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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