Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -102 CCU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +5 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -1.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -0.4 (-4.6) | 139.9 (+7.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -0.6 (-4.4) | 140.7 (+6.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -0.1 (-4.9) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -0.6 (-4.4) | 137.7 (+9.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | GAST 89 – 71 CCU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | CCU 80 – 74 GAST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | GAST 79 – 74 CCU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GAST 72 – 71 CCU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CCU 85 – 83 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#300) | -4.8 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#278) | -0.09 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#279) | -0.40 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#312) | 0.505 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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