Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +175 GAST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -3.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -4.3 (+6.3) | 146.3 (+21.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -3.1 (+5.1) | 146.5 (+21.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -4.5 (+6.5) | 149.3 (+18.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -4.2 (+6.2) | 147.1 (+20.9) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | CCU 76 – 71 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GAST 89 – 71 CCU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | CCU 80 – 74 GAST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | GAST 79 – 74 CCU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GAST 72 – 71 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-11 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#322) | -2.3 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#342) | -0.62 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#332) | -0.83 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#359) | 0.474 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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