Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +140 GAST -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -0.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.5 (+6.5) | 145.2 (+8.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.4 (+7.4) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -0.4 (+6.4) | 145.7 (+8.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.4 (+6.4) | 146.9 (+7.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | CCU 76 – 71 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GAST 89 – 71 CCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | GAST 79 – 74 CCU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GAST 72 – 71 CCU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CCU 85 – 83 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#322) | -6.5 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#324) | -0.81 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#324) | -1.19 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#340) | 0.467 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.9% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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