Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -1000 NIU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -14.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.5 (-2.5) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -11.1 (-1.1) | 142.8 (+5.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.1 (-1.1) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.8 (-0.8) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | TOL 84 – 67 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | -10.6 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#160) | -1.33 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#158) | -2.04 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#120) | 0.445 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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