Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -1600 NIU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +4 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -17.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.6 (-8.6) | 154.9 (+19.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -13.9 (-9.9) | 154.0 (+20.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.8 (-8.8) | 152.3 (+21.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -12.6 (-8.6) | 153.0 (+21.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | TOL 84 – 67 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | -15.5 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#135) | -2.59 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#171) | -2.98 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#105) | 0.375 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 18.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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