Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +600 TOL -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +17 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -7.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -7.2 (-9.8) | 153.9 (-2.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.2 (-8.8) | 152.5 (-1.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.3 (-10.7) | 156.0 (-5.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -7.0 (-10.0) | 155.4 (-4.4) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#302) | 4.1 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#294) | 0.44 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#286) | 0.66 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#275) | 0.528 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.