Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -2000 NIU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -14.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.0 (-15.0) | 156.6 (-9.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -13.1 (-16.1) | 155.5 (-8.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.5 (-14.5) | 154.1 (-7.1) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.6 (-14.6) | 154.8 (-7.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | TOL 84 – 67 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | -8.8 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#112) | -1.17 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#129) | -1.46 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#99) | 0.454 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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