Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +170 TOL -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +16 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -2.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.5 (-11.5) | 150.5 (+11.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.1 (-12.9) | 152.8 (+9.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.9 (-13.1) | 153.8 (+8.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.1 (-12.9) | 154.0 (+8.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 14, 2023 | TOL 84 – 67 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#270) | 1.1 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#246) | 0.70 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#234) | 0.48 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#209) | 0.528 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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