Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +280 TOL -355 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +14 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -5.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.1 (-8.9) | 148.9 (-12.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -6.3 (-7.7) | 148.2 (-12.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -4.9 (-9.1) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.3 (-9.7) | 149.6 (-13.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | TOL 84 – 67 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#312) | -0.6 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#278) | 0.23 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#287) | 0.45 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#268) | 0.522 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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