Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -800 UL +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +19 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -13.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -11.0 (+8.0) | 135.1 (+1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -13.1 (+5.9) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -11.8 (+7.2) | 136.8 (+0.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.9 (+8.1) | 135.9 (+1.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | TROY 79 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#155) | -9.8 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#121) | -1.30 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#156) | -1.75 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#81) | 0.445 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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