Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UL -125 TROY +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +14 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -3.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -2.7 (-16.7) | 146.4 (+13.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -2.6 (-16.6) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -2.9 (-16.9) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -2.7 (-16.7) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | TROY 79 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#133) | 2.4 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#148) | 0.24 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | 0.47 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#101) | 0.525 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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