Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -125 UL +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -2.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.3 (+4.7) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -1.7 (+4.3) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -0.8 (+5.2) | 147.1 (+4.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -0.6 (+5.4) | 145.0 (+7.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#189) | 0.4 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#231) | 0.06 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#207) | 0.17 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#217) | 0.499 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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