Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UL +380 TROY -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +20 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -9.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -8.0 (-12.0) | 136.8 (+23.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -9.1 (-10.9) | 139.0 (+21.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -9.5 (-10.5) | 139.9 (+20.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -8.3 (-11.7) | 138.9 (+21.1) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | TROY 79 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#333) | 1.1 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#339) | 1.02 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.29 (#339) | 0.61 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#337) | 0.583 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.1% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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