Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UL +380 TROY -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +18 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -10.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.1 (-7.9) | 133.5 (-3.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -9.4 (-8.6) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -9.4 (-8.6) | 132.8 (-2.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.4 (-7.6) | 133.9 (-3.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | TROY 79 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-12 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#323) | 3.6 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#307) | 0.31 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#311) | 0.62 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#270) | 0.533 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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