Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -1800 UL +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -17.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -13.0 (-16.0) | 133.8 (+7.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -13.6 (-16.6) | 134.1 (+6.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -13.3 (-16.3) | 135.1 (+5.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -13.7 (-16.7) | 134.6 (+6.4) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | TROY 79 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-12 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#105) | -9.9 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | -1.44 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#115) | -1.80 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#103) | 0.452 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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