Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | AF +240 SJSU -298 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +6 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -8.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -6.5 (+0.5) | 137.3 (+28.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -7.7 (+1.7) | 135.2 (+30.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -7.4 (+1.4) | 138.2 (+27.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -6.5 (+0.5) | 139.9 (+26.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SJSU 70 – 67 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 3-17 |
| Home | 3-15 | 6-10 |
| Away | 0-12 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#346) | -3.8 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#340) | -0.92 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#328) | -0.83 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#315) | 0.441 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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